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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Tuesday affirmed its plan to stop buying mortgage-backed securities, expressing a degree of confidence that it could eliminate that pillar of support without undermining the nation’s economic recovery.

The move came as the Fed voted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at nearly zero percent, citing evidence of economic weakness and little sign of inflation.

The Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, which will total $1.25 trillion and end March 31, have helped hold mortgage rates to near-record lows, and the Fed left open the possibility that the purchases might have to be resumed, particularly if the housing recovery stalls.

The Fed said it would “continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.”

Marvin Goodfriend, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said the Fed was essentially conducting an experiment by trying to end its purchases of mortgage securities. “It would like private money to come back into the mortgage market, but if the interest-rate spread on mortgages over government securities that is needed to bring private money back is too high, it could impede the recovery of the housing market,” he said.

Ideally, the Fed would like to see only a slight rise in mortgage rates, he said.

In announcing that it would hold its benchmark fed funds rate near zero, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s chief policy-setting arm, said that “the labor market is stabilizing.”

That was a slight improvement over the assessment given after the Fed committee’s last meeting, in January, when it said “the deterioration in the labor market is abating.”

The committee added: “Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly.

“However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.”

The committee maintained its position that “inflation is likely to be subdued for some time,” and left the target range for the fed funds rate, the rate that banks make overnight loans to each other, at zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008.

And as it has said since last March, the committee projected that the rate would probably remain “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.” Many economists have taken that language to mean that the Fed would not begin tightening monetary policy until the second half of this year.

As of last week, the Fed has bought just over $1 trillion in mortgage-related assets, through a program that started in November 2008. It also had bought, as of Wednesday, $169 billion out of a target of $175 billion in debt guaranteed by federal mortgage-financing agencies, primarily Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Stephen H. Axilrod, a retired Fed official and the author of “Inside the Fed,” a book about monetary policy, said of the committee members: “They’re gathering the nerve to end this response to the crisis and revert to normal, which is not to buy large amounts of long-term securities to lower interest rates bad credit payday loans.”

Traditionally, the Fed’s balance sheet has mostly comprised safe Treasury-securities.

But Ian Shepherdson, the chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics, a forecasting company, said the end of the asset purchases would “expose M2,” a measure of the money supply, “to the full force of the credit contraction, and it won’t be pretty.”

He wrote in a research note: “The Fed reserves the right to buy assets again if needed; we think it will have to.”

Mr. Goodfriend, now a professor of economics at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University, said: “The Fed can’t fund the mortgage market forever. There has to be an exit where the Fed pulls out, lets the spread move around a little, and assures investors that they can get a return commensurate with the current risk in housing.”

So far, the gradual tapering off of the purchases has not had a major effect on mortgage interest rates, which many Fed officials view as an encouraging sign.

The committee approved its public statement by a vote of 9 to 1. Thomas M. Hoenig, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who is known for his wariness about inflation, dissented, as he did in January.

Mr. Hoenig “believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to the buildup of financial imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability,” the Fed said in its statement.

With interest rates unable to go any lower, the Fed has had to use other instruments of monetary policy to help stimulate growth. Chief among those tools has been the asset purchases.

“The Fed, if it wanted to, and it may yet need to, could continue buying assets and expanding its balance sheet,” Mr. Goodfriend said.

“That’s an option the Fed has, even though interest rate policy is immobilized at zero. The reason we have a central bank is that it retains flexibility to move in either direction, depending on what the economy requires. It needs to make the most of that flexibility, because it’s very hard to see the future.”

The Fed also injected liquidity into the markets by making huge amounts of loans at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.

Less than a month ago, the Fed took steps to normalize lending by raising the interest rate it charges on short-term loans to banks to 0.75 percent, from 0.50 percent.

While the Fed emphasized that the change in the discount rate did not represent a shift in monetary policy, it was interpreted by some as a clear sign that an extraordinary era of easy money was going to end gradually.

Fed Leaves Rate Low as Economic Signs Stay Weak

BRUSSELS — As concerns intensify about countries like Iran and North Korea and their nuclear capabilities, this may be a risky time to sell more of the technology to the developing world.

Yet furthering nuclear exports is what several governments are seeking for their industries amid talk of a renaissance for the technology.

Take the promotion by the French government of a nuclear conference in Paris last week.

France said it wanted to help representatives of delegations that reportedly included those of Syria and Libya overcome “the challenges of finding financing, obtaining access to the technology and the latest research and training people to satisfactorily conduct their projects.”

The “peaceful use of nuclear power should not be confined to a handful of states that already hold the technology,” the government added in the message, posted at the Web site for the conference of which President Nicolas Sarkozy of France was host.

That will be a tall order.

France first must reconcile a number of competing objectives, including encouragement of the spread of nuclear expertise while preventing proliferation of military applications of the technology; building plants that are both affordable and safe enough to convince skeptics that there can be no recurrence of accidents that blighted the industry in the 1970s and 1980s; and convincing citizens that burying radioactive waste deep underground is an environmentally sound trade-off for generating nuclear power free of greenhouse gases.

The stakes are high. The number of reactors worldwide could approximately double between now and 2030, to more than 800, according to industry figures.

France should be well placed to stake a claim to that market. It is the world’s second-biggest nuclear power producer after the United States, and France already generates almost all of its own electricity from atoms. France also is home to Areva, a state-controlled company that is the world’s biggest reactor builder and is a leader in fuel reprocessing.

But Areva faces stiffening competition from its archrival Westinghouse, owned by Toshiba of Japan; G.E.-Hitachi, based in the United States; Rosatom of Russia; and up-and-coming international vendors like Korea Electric Power of South Korea.

Mr. Sarkozy called last week for international training schools with funding by France so that a new generation of technicians and designers in countries like Jordan could learn the skills required to run those new reactors safely. José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, also sought to help, by pressing for global application of nuclear safety standards set by the European Union.

Those initiatives could reduce opposition to nuclear power and exports of the technology by reducing accidents and by preventing technology from falling into the hands of terrorists.

The initiatives could also help European companies like Areva with designs that already meet those specifications.

The primary market for nuclear vendors is China, which probably will build three-quarters of the world’s new reactors through 2020 payday loans with no fax. But Westinghouse already has a firm foothold in China with its AP1000 model, and Chinese companies will soon start building those models using a “production line” approach, said Jeremy Gordon, an analyst for the World Nuclear Association, an industry group.

India is another one of the world’s most promising markets for nuclear power. But Mr. Gordon said there was no guarantee that India would become a major business hub for a single vendor like Areva. The company is already smarting after being beaten to a contract worth $20 billion in the United Arab Emirates by the South Koreans, who offered a much lower price.

Indeed, the biggest challenge for Areva in coming years may be overcoming the cost and complexity of its so-called E.P.R. model, which is loaded with multiple safety systems. The competing Westinghouse model relies more on so-called passive systems for safety, and it may prove simpler to build.

Another possible advantage for Westinghouse is that it has been more willing than other vendors to allow buyers to adopt aspects of a reactor’s design and allow them to develop a homegrown industry, Mr. Gordon said.

That means Areva’s most promising markets could be in the United States and Europe, where France and Britain will be refreshing their arrays of reactors, and where Italy has begun the process of reintroducing nuclear power after a break of more than two decades.

But large numbers of Europeans remain skeptical about the safety and environmental consequences of nuclear power, particularly the industry’s highly radioactive waste. That could limit Areva’s sales closer to home.

Günther Oettinger, the E.U. commissioner for energy, reiterated Friday that the European Commission would propose legislation promoting the permanent burial of high-level waste deep underground in geologically stable areas by the end of the year.

That move is designed to address worries about the waste, which is currently stored on an interim basis in pools of water or in casks, many near ground level and in some cases is exported.

But Mr. Oettinger also acknowledged that the issue of nuclear power would remain fraught in Europe, and he stressed that the European Commission recognized there were limits to how far it could push any nuclear agenda.

“We accept that the president of France, in nuclear plants, is seeking as many contracts as possible, both in the E.U. and beyond,” Mr. Oettinger said, but the Union had to “accept France’s energy mix just like Austria’s.”

He said Austria, which banned nuclear power in the late 1970s, already was able to generate most of its electricity without producing greenhouse gas emissions — by using hydropower.

Green Inc.: Taking a Risk With Nuclear Technology

Hot News: Dodd Lays Out Details of Financial Overhaul Bill

PARIS – A conference bringing together more than 60 nations Thursday added $1 billion to the fight against deforestation and boosted the morale of those hoping to save the world’s forests — a key defense against global warming.

Three months after a morose ending to climate change talks in Copenhagen, the one-day ministerial meeting in Paris attended by heavily forested countries such as Indonesia and those in the Amazon and Congo basins amounted to a confidence-builder for nations wondering what comes next in the battle against deforestation, many delegates said.

“We entered the meeting with $3.5 billion. It went to $4.5 billion (here) and we want to arrive in Oslo with $6 billion,” Brazilian Environment Minister Carlos Minc said after the closed-door talks.

A follow-up to the Paris meeting is planned in Oslo, Norway, in May.

Brice Lalonde, who heads climate negotiations for France, said: “We must go on. … There is a post-Copenhagen landscape where we will be more pragmatic.”

The 64 nations agreed to create a core structure of some 10 countries to work on the mechanics of equitably distributing funds and other issues. The idea is to arrive at the U.N. climate talks in Cancun, Mexico, in December with a concrete plan devoted specifically to the critical issue of deforestation.

Efforts to halt that culprit in climate change have bogged down along with the wider goal of reaching a legally binding global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions while helping poor nations adapt to, and cope with, climate change.

Thursday’s meeting focused on an aspect of a forest program — Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, or REDD — that was approved at the Copenhagen conference.

REDD Plus, discussed in Paris, is an incentive program based on providing funds to nations working to reduce emissions through good forest governance and protecting biological diversity and the rights of indigenous people.

Reclaiming the forest in many cases entails retraining people whose livelihoods are linked to the forest — or its destruction.

Deforestation — the burning of woodlands or the rotting of felled trees — is thought to account for up to 20 percent of C02 released into the atmosphere — as much as that emitted by all the world’s cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships combined cash advance payday loan.

Due to deforestation from logging, crop-growing and cattle grazing, Indonesia and Brazil have become the world’s third- and fourth-largest carbon emitters, after China and the U.S.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, opening the conference, said defending the world’s forests demanded more aggressive funding.

“Those who don’t want to do anything are those who don’t want to pay,” he said. He reiterated his appeal for a tax on financial market transactions worldwide that could be earmarked for a global climate fund.

“Together, we will demonstrate that it is possible to achieve concrete and measurable results, as of this year, starting with … the fight against deforestation,” Sarkozy said. He called the Copenhagen conference “frustrating.”

France, Norway and four other countries pledged an initial $3.5 billion to REDD Plus through 2012. The core coordination group established in Paris will, among other things, see where the funds are spent and ensure it is done fairly.

Minc, the Brazilian minister, said: if “we will arrive in Cancun with things that work, we won’t repeat the problems of Copenhagen.”

Many delegations were seeking a share of the funds and guidance about how to obtain them.

“What we need here are step-by-step guidelines to be followed to access funding,” said Wandoso Sisnanto, an adviser for Indonesia’s Forest Ministry.

“After Copenhagen, we have had no chance to talk … and now we can work with each other, coordinate. It’s really worthwhile to again build trust among us,” he said.

Many funding programs are in the works, and individual countries are moving ahead with their own programs to fight deforestation and educate local populations who live off forests — estimated at more than 1 billion worldwide — to do so in a sustainable way.

Meeting on deforestation boosts morale, budget

NEW YORK – Tim Burton and Johnny Depp’s trip down the rabbit hole drew huge crowds, as “Alice in Wonderland” earned a whopping $116.3 million in its opening weekend — a record for a 3-D film.

The surprisingly huge total easily surpassed all other films in release and gave Walt Disney Studios an even bigger opening than that of the hugely popular 3-D film “Avatar.” It also marked the biggest opening weekend for a non-sequel.

“This is just one of those cultural phenomenons that has caught everybody’s interest,” said Chuck Viane, Disney’s president of distribution. “They don’t come like this very often.”

The film beat forecasts that ranged between $65 million-$75 million, and the surprising results added some intrigue to Oscar Sunday. Before the weekend, Disney and 20th Century Fox competed over the available 3-D ready screens; screens outfitted for 3-D are rapidly rising, but still amount to fewer than 4,000 in the U.S. and Canada.

Before “Alice,” many of those screens were still dedicated to Fox’s box-office behemoth, “Avatar,” which is up for nine Academy Awards on Sunday, including best picture.

In its 12th week of release, “Avatar” earned $7.7 million over the weekend, bringing its cumulative domestic total to $720.2 million.

Asked whether fewer 3-D and IMAX screens hurt “Avatar,” Chris Aronson, head of distribution for Fox, said, “No question.”

“Are we disappointed? Sure,” said Aronson. “But there are certain market forces that are beyond anything we can do. To have an 11-week window is pretty much unheard of. It certainly allowed this movie to be discovered and witnessed by so many people.”

“Avatar” isn’t disappearing, though, and it can be expected to regain 3-D and IMAX screens, especially if it wins best picture.

“We’ll have that negotiation tomorrow morning with exhibition, without a doubt,” said Aronson.

It also seemed likely that “Alice” benefited from the “Avatar”-effect in galvanizing audiences for 3-D movies. “Alice in Wonderland” is the first film released in 3-D since James Cameron’s epic. “Alice” was shot in 2-D, but transferred to 3-D in post-production.

“In the wake of the impact of `Avatar,’ there’s a whole new audience that’s been indoctrinated to 3-D,” said Paul Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com. “That paid off big for `Alice in Wonderland.’”

The weekend’s second best performer at the box-office was Overture’s “Brooklyn’s Finest,” Antoine Fuqua’s gritty police thriller, which earned $13.5 million in its first weekend, according to studio estimates.

Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” for Paramount followed closely with $13.3 million in its third week of release, bringing its cumulative total to $95.8 million. Warner Bros.’s comedy “Cop Out” came in fourth, adding $9.1 million for a two-week total of $32.4 million.

But “Alice” thoroughly dominated the weekend, surprising even Disney. Worldwide, it took in $210.3 million.

It was a record release for the first quarter of the year, typically a time of lower box-office expectations and critically acclaimed Oscar contenders. The previous first quarter record was Mel Gibson’s “Passion of the Christ,” which opened with $83.8 million in Feb. 2004.

“We went into Friday thinking that we really had a big hit with us, and then all of a sudden the numbers started to roll in,” said Viane inferred heaters. “Alice” went on to make $41 million on Friday alone.

“We said, `Oh my gosh. This is bigger than any of us could have anticipated,” said Viane.

Though reviews were mostly respectfully negative, much of the film’s draw was surely in teaming director Burton and his frequent collaborator, Depp, who plays the Mad Hatter. It also presented moviegoers with a 3-D updating of Lewis Carroll’s beloved classic. Though at times dark, it gained a PG rating from the MPAA (for, among other things, “a smoking caterpillar”), which meant a large number of kids could attend.

But it proved once again how significant the draw of 3-D is to moviegoers. The technology repeatedly has inflated box-office grosses for everything from “Avatar” to “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs.”

“Alice” also played across 188 IMAX screens in North America and gave IMAX its best opening ever, with $11.9 million domestically. That beat the previous record of $9.5 million set by “Avatar.”

IMAX chairman and president Greg Foster said the huge success of “Alice” was unexpected, but that “Avatar” would regain some of those IMAX screens, whether or not it wins best picture.

“The momentum on 3-D is so massive right now,” said Foster. “They were ready for a new movie. They were ready for a new, cool 3-D experience.”

Though most of the Oscar contenders weren’t a big factor at the box-office Sunday, the boffo performance of “Alice” proved the good health of Hollywood, said Dergarabedian.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. “Alice in Wonderland,” $116.3 million.

2. “Brookyn’s Finest,” $13.5 million.

3. “Shutter Island,” $13.3 million.

4. “Cop Out,” $9.1 million.

5. “Avatar,” $7.7 million.

6. “The Crazies,” $7 million.

7. “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief,” $5.1 million.

8. “Valentine’s Day,” $4.3 million.

9. “Crazy Heart,” $3.4 million.

10. “Dear John,” $2.9 million.

___

On the Net:

http://www.hollywood.com/boxoffice

___

Universal Pictures and Focus Features are owned by NBC Universal, a unit of General Electric Co.; Sony Pictures, Sony Screen Gems and Sony Pictures Classics are units of Sony Corp.; Paramount and Paramount Vantage are divisions of Viacom Inc.; Disney’s parent is The Walt Disney Co.; Miramax is a division of The Walt Disney Co.; 20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight Pictures and Fox Atomic are owned by News Corp.; Warner Bros. and New Line are units of Time Warner Inc.; MGM is owned by a consortium of Providence Equity Partners, Texas Pacific Group, Sony Corp., Comcast Corp., DLJ Merchant Banking Partners and Quadrangle Group; Lionsgate is owned by Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.; IFC Films is owned by Rainbow Media Holdings, a subsidiary of Cablevision Systems Corp.; Rogue Pictures is owned by Relativity Media LLC; Overture Films is a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corp.

‘Alice’ opens with $116.3 million, a 3-D record

Hot News: Congressional estimates show grim deficit picture

Despite fears that snowstorms in February would dampen sales, the nation’s stores posted their strongest results on Thursday since late 2007, suggesting the beginnings of a broad recovery in retailing.

Nearly every major chain turned in robust figures, beating analysts’ expectations and recording the sixth consecutive monthly sales increase. Even long-struggling stores and sectors came back from the dead.

“If anybody was wondering about the real state of the consumer, this is their answer,” said John D. Morris, a retailing analyst with BMO Capital Markets. “The consumer is coming back.”

The results provoked a measure of skepticism, however. A major reason they looked so good was that they were being compared with the deep declines of February 2009. That tempered industry professionals’ enthusiasm, as did the continuing high rate of unemployment, which strongly correlates with consumer spending.

Moody’s Investors Service said in a research note on Thursday that while retailers reported “modestly positive results, we remain unconvinced that this is evidence of a sustainable trend.”

Analysts at Moody’s said that in the year ahead, many consumers would be forced to increase their savings to pay off debt, and that the weak credit market would continue to squeeze consumers.

With February always a slow sales month, retailing analysts said the major test of the nascent recovery in retailing would come at the end of April. Over the next two months, they will be looking to see whether consumers are willing to open their wallets for spring clothes and Easter-related treats and decorations.

But for now, the February results are the best news in retailing in many months.

Comparing this February to last, the industry reported a 4 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year, according to Thomson Reuters. Analysts polled by the company had expected stores to do well, in contrast to last year’s 4.7 percent decline. Even so, the results exceeded their expectations by more than 1 percent.

The International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group, published its own figure, saying the industry had a 3.7 percent increase — the strongest since November 2007, when sales grew 4.9 percent by that group’s measure.

Had the weather been better, the results would probably have been even more robust. Retailers have a tendency to blame snow and rain for lackluster sales. But Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse, an information service of MasterCard Advisors, said this time the retailers’ lament was justified. He pointed out that sales in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states — hit by repeated storms — account for about 25 percent of all retailing in the United States.

Macy’s, for instance, reported a 3.7 percent increase at stores open at least a year but said that its February increase would have been about 5 percent if not for the storms.

The retailing industry’s 4 percent increase in February was the best monthly percentage jump that the chains had collectively posted since the end of 2007. But that does not mean the stores have returned to the sales levels they hit at the peak of the boom. Sales fell so far in the recession that stores have climbed only part of the way back fast payday loans.

Still, the improvement last month was not only pervasive, it included categories of merchandise that had been hurt most by the downturn.

For example, sales of luxury goods not including jewelry peaked in 2007, and while they have yet to climb back to that level, they rose by double digits last month. Sales of luxury goods increased 15.2 percent year-over-year, according to SpendingPulse. “You’re just growing off of an absolutely tiny sales base last year,” Mr. McNamara said.

The February results continue a positive trend for the sector. Sales were up 8.1 percent in January and 5.5 percent in December, compared with the same months the previous year.

February sales at Saks stores open at least a year, a measure of retail health known as same-store sales, increased 2 percent. Same-store sales in the specialty retail segment of Neiman Marcus, which includes Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores, increased 5.1 percent. At Nordstrom, which offers a wider range of prices than Saks and Neiman Marcus, sales rose 10.3 percent.

As expected, stores that sell brand names at a discount thrived. Analysts said that while luxury retailing was enjoying an uptick, value was still king. Same-store sales rose 11 percent at Ross Stores and 10 percent at TJX Companies, which owns chains like TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Home Goods.

Other clothing purveyors showed improvement. Same-store sales climbed year-over-year at nearly every major department store chain, a long-struggling sector, including Macy’s and Kohl’s (both up 3.7 percent), Dillard’s (up 2 percent), J. C. Penney (up 1.2 percent) and Bon-Ton (up 0.5 percent). Stein-Mart was an exception, posting a 9.3 percent decline.

There were also increases at most specialty clothing stores and retailers that cater to teenagers, including Aeropostale (up 7 percent), American Eagle Outfitters (up 6 percent), Buckle (up 5.1 percent), Wet Seal (up 4.7 percent) and Gap (up 3 percent).

Abercrombie & Fitch, the worst-performing chain for much of the recession, reported a 5 percent same-store sales increase.

Same-store sales rose by double digits at Zumiez (up 11.2 percent) and Limited, which owns chains like Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works (up 10 percent). Hot Topic was an exception, with sales sinking 7 percent.

Yet even as some consumers bought discretionary items like shirts and sneakers, they continued to be frugal-minded, driving sales at stores that sell food and other necessities at low prices.

Same-store sales were strong at discount chains like Costco (up 9 percent), BJ’s Wholesale Club (up 7.5 percent), and Target (up 2.4 percent). Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest retailer, does not report monthly sales. Costco said in a statement that customer traffic increased by about 3 percent and that the average transaction amount rose 1 percent.

The International Council of Shopping Centers expects the industry to post a 2.5 percent same-store sales increase in March. Easter, which is a week earlier this year than last, will most likely help increase sales. So might tax refunds.

Despite Storms, Stores Beat Expectations With Relatively Strong Gains

NEW YORK – An industry trade group says the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh straight month, but at a slower pace than in the previous month.

The Institute for Supply Management said Monday its manufacturing index read 56.5 last month, slightly slower than the 58.4 growth in January. It was also slower than the 58 level expected by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion guaranteed approval cash loans. It was the seventh consecutive month of growth.

ISM says its employment measure grew for the fourth time in five months.

A pickup in business investment in equipment and software, increases in exports and slower cutbacks of inventories is helping drive production gains.

Manufacturing grows in Feb., but at slower pace

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A document claiming Toyota Motor Corp saved over $100 million by getting U.S. regulators to agree a cheap fix for unintended acceleration problems raised pressure on the company's president as he arrived in Washington to prepare for a grilling from congress.

Akio Toyoda is set to testify before the U.S. lawmakers this week in an effort to contain a safety crisis that threatens the reputation and continued success of the automaker in the market that made it a global powerhouse.

Toyota has recalled over 8.5 million vehicles globally in recent months for problems including sticky accelerators, accelerators that can be pinned down by loose floormats and a braking glitch affecting its hybrid models.

The company said on Monday it had received a federal grand jury subpoena for documents related to unintended acceleration that led to the recall of millions of cars in the United States.

Regulators believe five deaths are associated with floor mats and are reviewing up to 29 other fatality reports to see if they are related to unintended acceleration.

A 2009 internal document turned over to lawmakers and made available on Sunday shows Toyota's Washington D.C. staff trumpeting savings of more than $100 million by convincing regulators to end a 2007 investigation of sudden acceleration complaints with a relatively cheap floormat recall.

The document seems certain to add to the high-stakes debate about whether Toyota missed or ignored complaints about sudden acceleration in its vehicles and whether U.S. safety regulators were tough enough.

Toyota shares rose as much as 3 percent earlier on Monday, lifted by a rally in exporters after the yen slipped against the dollar, but pared gains to close up 1.2 percent.

"Investors remain reluctant to buy up Toyota, given uncertainty over how the congressional hearings will go," said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, head of the investment information department at SMBC Friend Securities.

"We are likely to see more selling of Toyota shares and buying of Honda shares," he said.

Toyota stock has lost 19 percent over the past month but has steadied over the past 10 trading sessions.

"VERY TELLING" DOCUMENT

Toyota on Sunday reiterated that it was conducting a top-to-bottom review of all its operations.

"Our first priority is the safety of our customers and to conclude otherwise on the basis of one internal presentation is wrong," the company said home kerosene heaters.

But the U.S. Department of Transportation said the document highlighted Toyota's slow response to the safety problems.

"Unfortunately, this document is very telling," said department spokeswoman Olivia Alair in an emailed statement.

Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. said General Manager Bob Carter would provide an update on its recall actions later on Monday.

Toyota has launched a publicity campaign to convince current and prospective customers that the company is addressing the problems. Its U.S. sales plummeted 16 percent in January and the company has estimated the recalls will cost it $2 billion at the operating level in the fiscal year ending March.

Toyota said it would temporarily halt production in France over the next two months due to soft sales, although it did not specify the number of idle days.

Last week, it had announced a similar stoppage at its factory in Britain for an extra week after Easter, on top of recent and planned output cuts in North America and Japan.

Japanese rival Mazda Motor Corp said it would not launch a special marketing campaign to draw customers away from Toyota, shunning a strategy used by other car makers keen to capitalize on Toyota's recall woes.

TOYODA TESTIMONY KEY

Toyoda, who is set to testify Wednesday after initially ruling out such an appearance, has acknowledged that the automaker founded by his grandfather let its standards slip during fast growth over the past decade.

The company has been tight-lipped about Toyoda's schedule, with a spokesman declining to confirm whether its president was already in the United States. Japanese media reported he had arrived in Washington and television showed images of his private jet.

Analysts said Toyoda's appearance in Washington will be a defining moment in whether and how quickly it can move beyond its safety crisis.

"Congress is doing him a favor. He can be apologetic and be contrite and take responsibility and acknowledge that there have been some stress points in growth of the company," said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale School of Management senior associate dean and an expert on corporate leadership.

(Additional reporting by David Bailey and Soyoung Kim in Detroit and Chang-Ran Kim, Yumiko Nishitani and Yoshifumi Takemoto in Tokyo; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jon Loades-Carter)

Toyota memo raises stakes for chief’s U.S. hearings

LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures were stronger Tuesday after a three-day break, with investors returning to a rally in commodity prices, notably gold.

S&P 500 futures rose 4.4 points to 1,083.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 8.25 points to 1,791.50. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31 points.

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U.S. stocks rose last week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.9% to snap a four-period losing run.

Investors are returning to a rally in gold prices — up some $26 an ounce in electronic trade — and firmer commodity prices across the board. In euro terms, gold rose to an all-time high of 818 euros an ounce.

The dollar index fell 0.2%. The euro recovered somewhat as European finance ministers demanded fresh budget cuts from Greece if a review of the country’s debt-slashing measures doesn’t meet approval next month.

The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Index for February, along with the National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index, also for February, will be released Tuesday, as will securities inflows for December easy pay day loans.

Earnings also are due from companies including Merck & Co. , Kraft Foods and Qwest Communications .

Terra Industries on Monday accepted a $4.1 billion takeover bid from Norway’s Yara. See full story.

Barclays reported a surge in profit as the U.K. bank said 2010 has started out more strongly than 2009. See full story.

Virgin Calls On Europe To Be Tougher On BA, AA

Virgin Atlantic CEO Steve Ridgway shares his views on DOT’s decision to tentatively approve antitrust immunity to British Airways and American Airlines and what Virgin’s game plan is going forward.

AMR may advance as the American Airlines parent received tentative approval for antitrust immunity on transatlantic flights with partners British Airways and Iberia, with the airline only forced to divest four slots at London’s Heathrow Airport.

Rigel Pharmaceuticals may advance after reaching a deal to license its rheumatoid arthritis drug to AstraZeneca for as much as $1.25 billion before royalties.

The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, and strong results from Westpac helped the Australian S&P/ASX 200 rise 0.5%. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore were closed for Lunar New Year.

Indications: U.S. stock futures stronger after three-day break

Export and import statistics released Wednesday for the United States and China offered the latest signs that world trade was starting to recover from the global financial crisis.

China said its exports climbed 21 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports surged 85.5 percent. The healthy jump in exports could fuel further calls from the United States and the European Union for China to break the peg of its currency, the renminbi, to the dollar and allow the renminbi to appreciate.

In the United States, foreign demand for American goods like meat and auto parts increased in December. Exports rose 3.3 percent, to $142.7 billion, continuing an upward trend. That was not enough, however, to offset the 4.8 percent increase in imports, which totaled $182.9 billion. The increase in imports suggested that American businesses and consumers were growing more confident about spending.

“That’s consistent with the rebound in manufacturing activity,” said Julia Coronado, senior United States economist at BNP Paribas. “Companies have to increase production to meet demand, and that requires a lot of imported goods, so in the near term we will probably see further widening.”

Over all, for December, the gap between the value of American imports and exports was $40.2 billion — its highest level in a year — up 10.4 percent from November. Wall Street analysts had expected the deficit to grow to $35.8 billion.

The larger-than-expected trade gap could mean that the government will have to revise its estimate for economic expansion in the fourth quarter of last year. Last month, the government said the economy expanded at a rate of 5.7 percent from October to December — the fastest pace in six years — aided by a narrowing gap between imports and exports.

A weak dollar has made American products, like airplanes and microchips, cheaper for many foreign buyers. “Exports will continue to be boosted by better economic conditions abroad,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist for MFR Inc., wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

A surge in exports helped narrow the politically important trade gap with China, which retreated 10 payday loan lenders.3 percent.

Oil imports rose sharply in December, contributing to the swelling trade gap, reaching $28.1 billion, from $24.4 billion in November.

In recent months, steep rises in oil prices have often been a central reason for the widening trade deficit. But that was not the case in December. Prices increased only slightly in December — up 66 cents to $73.20 a barrel — indicating that much of the growth in imports was the result of businesses simply importing more oil. Excluding petroleum goods, the trade deficit in December was little changed from November.

China’s exports have recovered more rapidly, partly because the low value of the renminbi has kept Chinese goods relatively inexpensive in foreign markets. The rebound has been so rapid in fact that some factory executives in the Pearl River delta region near Hong Kong have begun complaining of shortages of steel containers in which to ship their goods. Container shipping companies have begun to raise rates and remove discounts.

“With the export recovery taking hold more strongly, the outlook for export manufacturing, ports and container shipping sectors appears to be brighter, compared to last year,” Jing Ulrich, the chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan, said in a research note.

China’s imports in January rose impressively, in line with economists’ expectations, because imports a year ago were so weak. Many Chinese export factories nearly stopped buying raw materials then as their orders dried up, but they have been restocking since late spring.

Exports and imports both benefited this year from the timing of Chinese New Year, which will be Sunday. It fell on Jan. 26 last year, and a weeklong holiday at the end of January last year helped curtail economic activity in China.

The China trade surplus was $14.17 billion last month, compared with $18.43 billion in December and $39.1 billion in January of last year, according to figures released Wednesday by the General Administration of Customs in China.

Latest Data Hints at a Recovery in World Trade

SINGAPORE — Singapore Airlines, one of the world’s biggest carriers by market value, on Tuesday reported its best quarterly profit in almost two years as cargo volumes rebounded and travel improved.

The airline industry is recovering from its worst downturn last year, but growth in the more profitable business class segment, where SIA thrives, is slow and could take time to capture pre-crisis level.

“Passenger loadings in January and bookings in hand indicate that the recovery in the third quarter is likely to continue in the final quarter of the current financial year,” SIA said in a statement.

“The business outlook for the group in 2010 is encouraging, but it must be acknowledged that uncertainties linger over the global economy.”

The Singapore carrier saw a strong December when cargo traffic turned positive for the first time in 19 months and year-end travel boosted demand, but it has trailed the recovery seen by Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific, which is helped by China’s strong demand.

CLSA expects February’s Singapore Airshow could boost premium traffic and the mass market could benefit from the opening of the city-state’s two casino resorts later this year fast cash advance.

But the aviation industry body I.A.T.A. said last week the sector could face a tough 2010, making up for the lost demand in 2009 and handling new security demands.

SIA, 55 percent-owned by state investor Temasek Holdings, reported a net profit of 403.7 million Singapore dollars ($286.3 million)) in its third quarter, its highest quarterly profit since March 2008.

The results compared to a net profit of 337 million Singapore dollars a year ago, but below analysts’ average forecast of 448 million Singapore dollars.

Earnings from U.S. rivals so far this quarter have been mixed, raising concerns about the industry’s recovery.

At the close of trade, SIA shares were down 8.6 percent since the start of the year compared to an 9.4 percent drop in shares of Cathay Pacific and a 6 percent drop in the broader Singapore market.

Reuters

Singapore Air Profit Rises as Demand Bounces Back

Hot News: UBS falls after Swiss minister comments on U.S. row

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — When China began its massive stimulus and bank-lending program, almost immediately its equity markets moved higher. But rather than this being an example of the Efficient Market Theory at work, the explanation was the more messy unintended consequences — the huge bank-lending effort was spilling directly into the stocks and not just building roads and railways.

When that stimulus goes into reverse, you might expect equity markets to follow. So far, they’re right on cue. Shanghai’s benchmark share index has fallen 9% this year, and last week, China XD Electric became the first A-share to fall on its debut in nearly four years. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is now testing the psychologically important 20,000-point level, and there have also been IPO casualties, the latest being SouthGobi , which debuted with an alarming 11% fall on Friday.

Only days ago, accountants were forecasting Hong Kong and Shanghai would again lead the world with record IPOs this year. This may need to be rethought. Already stories have been circling that regulators in Shanghai are planning another moratorium on new issues to shore up the market, while in Hong Kong, at least one IPO luncheon was abruptly cancelled last week.

As the first month of 2010 has progressed, investors have grown rattled as Beijing’s exit strategy from its stimulus program has taken on an increasingly desperate look. First we had a hike in reserve requirements for banks before it was reported that all new loans for the rest of the month had been banned, amid reports new lending had already reached 1.45 trillion yuan in the first three weeks — nearly 20% of the full-year target.

It also appeared mainland Chinese banks were scrambling to raise fresh capital and drop lending projects. Bank of China’s proposed fund raising ballooned from an initial 40 billion yuan ($5.86 billion) to a stock offering of up to 230 billion Hong Kong dollars ($29.6 billion). The new frugality has led to China shelving some of its high-speed rail infrastructure projects, according to a report last week in the South China Morning Post.

The need for Beijing to find a change of gear for the economy has taken on greater urgency after the consumer price index came in 1.9% higher for last December, up from a 0.6% rise a month earlier.

At the same time authorities do not want to stall the economic recovery. This, to some extent, is no different from governments around the world seeking a painless exit from last year’s giant stimulus programs — but for China’s unbalanced economy, withdrawal could be particularly challenging payday loan companies. According to Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach, who spoke in Hong Kong recently, stimulus investment and bank lending accounted for almost 95% of China’s growth in 2009.

Another complication China faces is that, unlike many countries coming out of the deep global recession, it has to tighten into a potential property-market bubble after steep price-rises last year. It may look as if it all doesn’t quite add up, although some brokers say there is no need to worry.

CLSA’s strategists argue the tightening noise is just a speed bump in a bull market, and those with a view extending beyond two months should buy more interest-rate-sensitives in China, such as property and bank stocks. They add that talk of a slowdown or “collapse” in residential property sales this month should be ignored, as the Chinese government wants to see a cooling off, as authorities hope to use the continuing residential-property development cycle to drive economic growth.

A new report from HSBC research also dismisses concerns over tightening, saying regulators are only seeking to smooth quarterly lending, not restrict loans. They suggest a good way to assess the current period of tightening is to look back to 2004, when Beijing also raised interest rates. Then, the H-share market bottomed one month after the first tightening measure with a 15%-20% correction, although less reassuringly, the A-share market entered a two-year bear market.

Fast forward to today and added into the mix is a general weakening in emerging-market equity risk appetite for global investors, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and uncertainty over new regulation on banking and capital movements overhangs the market.

We can expect news on policy coming out of Beijing to be watched closely in the days ahead. It’s odds-on that regulators will tread carefully so as not to destabilize equity markets further with planned cash calls for banks and a new listing pipeline ahead.

Still, while authorities may find its possible to efficiently control bank lending by decree — and even to do so with year-end gross domestic product numbers — stock markets and property markets are quite different animals.

Craig Stephen’s This Week in China: Low follows stimulus high in China

FRANKFURT (AFP) – The German chemical and cosmetics group Henkel, maker of Persil soap powder, reported on Friday that its core earnings jumped last year and that the 2010 outlook was good as well.

Henkel's earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) surged by 38 percent to 1.08 billion euros (1.51 billion dollars) in 2009, even though sales slipped by 3.5 percent to 13.57 billion euros according to preliminary figures.

The final figures are to be published on February 25, and the results were noticeably better than expected in the group's adhesives and laundry and home care product units, a statement said no fax cash advance.

For 2010, Henkel said it "is confident of again outperforming its relevant markets in terms of organic sales growth," after allowing for foreign exchange effects and acquisitions or divestments.

The group also expects core earnings "to improve noticeably compared to the prior-year figures."

German Henkel reports surge in 2009 core earnings

HONG KONG — Shares in Rusal, the aluminum giant controlled by the Russian oligarch Oleg V. Deripaska, plunged nearly 11 percent Wednesday in their trading debut in Hong Kong, weighed down by global markets’ recent slump.

Rusal raised $2.2 billion in the initial public offering last week, making it the largest in many months in Hong Kong. The I.P.O., the first on the exchange this year, is also the first primary listing there for a company from outside Asia. Hong Kong emerged as one of the biggest venues for initial offerings last year, largely reflecting a flurry of listings from Chinese companies.

A number of Russian companies, particularly those operating near China in Siberia, or selling commodities across the border, are eager to follow Rusal’s lead and tap Chinese capital markets. These include the Russian state railroad, which operates the only rail line from the Far East to Europe.

Russian companies say they believe that Chinese investors are eager to invest in Russian mines and oil companies but have been reluctant to put money into the sometimes murky Russian stock exchanges. That is attracting to Hong Kong the Russian companies that might previously have sought to list in London or New York. China last year surpassed Germany as Russia’s largest trading partner.

Rusal, caught up in tortuous debt-restructuring negotiations last year that were among the most extensive in Russian history, eventually was approved for a listing after regulatory hold-ups pushed the timing into 2010.

A number of prominent investors, including the New York hedge fund manager Paulson & Company and Nathaniel Rothschild, the European banking family heir, bought into the offering. But concerns about Rusal’s $14.9 billion debt and other risks prompted the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to limit the company’s share purchases to batches starting at a million Hong Kong dollars ($129,000) to discourage small investors from the offering.

Rusal shares finished their first day of trading at 9.66 Hong Kong dollars, 1.14 dollars below the I.P.O. price of 10.80. Mr. Deripaska said the performance was reasonable in light of recent global market declines, Reuters reported.

The overall Hong Kong market had a sixth successive session of declines Wednesday; the Hang Seng index fell 0.4 percent.

The Rusal I quick payday loan.P.O. price was set Friday before mining and metals shares swooned globally, said Mark Rubinstein, a deputy chief analyst at Metropol in Moscow, and by the time the stock started trading the drop was expected.

It should not weigh against the broader strategy of Russian companies trying to sell their shares in Hong Kong, he said.

“That it was placed successfully, that is important,” he said. “If it moves in line with the market, that is all it needs to do.”

Russian Railways, the world’s largest railway company and the operator of the Trans-Siberian Railway connecting Asia to Europe, is considering taking two subsidiaries public and could list in Hong Kong, an adviser to the company has said.

Ilyushin Finance, an aircraft leasing company partly owned by the Russian financier Aleksandr Y. Lebedev, is also considering listing in Hong Kong to raise about $200 million, according to a spokesman.

“Clearly, there’s a trend of Russians discovering Asia,” Dimitry Afanasiev, chairman of Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners, who negotiated the listing in Hong Kong, said Wednesday.

In mainland China, the Shanghai composite index dropped 1.1 percent, dragged down by continued nervousness about the Chinese authorities’ efforts to rein in bank lending in a bid to quash inflation.

Those concerns — combined with worries about President Obama’s plans for tighter restrictions on banks — have helped drag down stocks around the world for days.

“The last couple of weeks have thrown up prospects of U.S.-led banking regulation and simmering sovereign credit concerns. Neither directly challenges the strong domestic fundamentals of Asian economies, though Asia of course cannot escape the fact of its export leverage to developed economies, nor of the state of global liquidity in so far as it impacts portfolio flows,” Patrick Bennett, a strategist at Société Générale in Hong Kong, wrote in a note on Wednesday. “While there is uncertainty, we must expect some defensive positioning in Asian markets.”

Andrew E. Kramer reported from Moscow.

Newly Public Rusal Slides, Following Markets’ Slump

WASHINGTON – The Senate Tuesday rejected a plan backed by President Barack Obama to create a bipartisan task force to tackle the federal deficit this year despite glaring new figures showing the enormity of the red-ink threat.

The special deficit panel would have attempted to produce a plan combining tax cuts and spending curbs that would have been voted on after the midterm elections. The measure went down because anti-tax Republicans joined with Democrats who were wary of being railroaded into cutting Social Security and Medicare.

The Senate vote to kill the deficit task force came just hours after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicted a $1.35 trillion deficit for this year as the economy continues to slowly recover from the recession.

“Yet another indication that Congress is more concerned with the next election than the next generation,” said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., a sponsor of the plan.

The budget deficits facing Obama and Congress are large and intractable, and the CBO prediction for 2010 is roughly equal to last year’s record $1.4 trillion ocean of red ink. That means the government is borrowing to cover 40 percent of the cost of its programs.

The report predicts a sluggish economic recovery and continued high unemployment — which presages big political problems for President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies heading into the midterm elections.

The report sees unemployment averaging 10.1 percent this year as the economy grows by just over 2 percent. It would grow only slightly more next year with an unemployment rate of 9.5 percent.

“CBO expects that the pace of economic recovery will be slow,” said agency chief Douglas Elmendorf.

The latest estimates also project that the deficit will drop to $980 billion next year and $480 billion in five years — but only if a host of tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush are allowed to expire. Most budget experts see deficits nearing or exceeding $1 trillion each year over the next decade once tax cuts and other policies are factored in.

It’s a sobering reminder of the fundamental imbalance of the federal government’s budget that comes just days before Obama’s Feb. 1 budget submission. The White House says Obama will propose a three-year freeze on domestic agency budgets, though the savings would barely make a dent. It hasn’t said whether Obama will proposes tax hikes or cuts to spiraling benefit programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security no fax pay day loans.

The 2010 deficit figure is in line with previous estimates and would be less, marginally, than last year’s $1.4 trillion shortfall. But plans afoot on Capitol Hill for a new jobs bill and a coming Obama request for war funds would add to the total.

The spending freeze, expected to be proposed by Obama during the State of the Union address on Wednesday, would apply to a relatively small portion of the federal budget, affecting a $477 billion pot of money available for domestic agencies whose budgets are approved by Congress each year. Some of those agencies could get increases, others would have to face cuts; such programs got an almost 10 percent increase this year. The federal budget total was $3.5 trillion.

The freeze on so-called discretionary programs would have only a modest impact on the deficit. The steps needed to really tackle such huge deficits include tax increases and curbs on benefit programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

That was the idea behind the Obama-backed plan to pass a law to create a special task force to come up with a plan to curb the spiraling budget deficit. Now, Obama may create a weaker version by a presidential order. But unlike the plan rejected Tuesday, there’s no way to force a Senate vote.

Supporters actually garnered 53 votes for the plan co-sponsored by Gregg and Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D. But 60 votes were required under special floor rules. Thirty-six Democrats and independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut voted for the plan as did 16 Republicans.

The task force was rejected after the powerful seniors lobby, led by AARP, objected to a potential fast-track debate of cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Anti-tax activists and GOP-friendly editorial pages pressed Republicans to oppose it. It would have tried to reveal a deficit reduction blueprint after the November elections for a vote before the new Congress convenes.

The plan was offered as an amendment to a deeply unpopular bill to permit the government to borrow an additional $1.9 trillion to finance its operations and prevent a first-ever default on U.S. obligations.

___

On the Net:

Congressional Budget Office: http://cbo.gov/

Senate rejects bipartisan task force to tackle deficit

This Wednesday, Steven P. Jobs will step to the stage at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco and unveil a shiny new machine that may or may not change the world.

In the magician’s world, that’s called “the reveal.”

And the most magical part? Even as the media and technology worlds have anticipated this announcement for months, Apple has said not word one about The Device. Reporting on the announcement has become crowdsourced, with thousands of tech and media journalists scrambling for the latest wisp and building on the reporting of others.

However miraculous the thingamajig turns out to be — all rumors point to some kind of tabletlike device — it can’t be more remarkable than the control that Apple and Mr. Jobs have over their audience.

“The reason that we all write about Apple is because we are, of course, interested, but also because everybody likes to read about Apple,” said Matt Buchanan, a contributing editor at the technology site Gizmodo. “Even if they hate Apple.”

As an organization, Apple is more disciplined in managing message than even the Obama campaign, with a culture — some would say cult — of corporate omertà. The only reason we know that the tablet is for real, that it is probably a 10-inch touch device that will cost $600 to $1,000, is that at some point, Apple had to reach out to partners who do not share its sense of pristine hygiene around information.

“Other companies put things in beta, let people try it out and then bring it out,” said Steven Levy, a senior writer at Wired. “With Apple, they say nothing, build the suspense and then say: ‘Here it is. You may discuss.’ Other companies don’t have the discipline, the heart, to do that.”

John Gruber, who writes at DaringFireball.net, says that there may be a business and communications lesson here: make something rather than talk about it.

“When I was younger, I used to love to go to the Philly car show, but I learned after a while that the coolest cars at the show — the prototypes — never get built,” he said. “Apple builds and unveils actual products. They don’t do prototypes.”

Even David Blaine, who is a real magician, calls Mr. Jobs “the ultimate showman who keeps the audience excited the whole way leading up to the reveal.” The strategy carries a measure of risk: Apple TV and the Cube were both introduced with the fanfare of an ocean liner, but behaved more like boat anchors in the marketplace. And iTunes was a soft unveiling that took its time in taking over the world in part because it came out on a Mac-only platform.

But more often than not, Apple has delivered on Mr. Jobs’s showmanship. People remember the debut of the iPhone three years ago, and Apple’s promise that it would change everything car loan. It promptly did, so who wants to miss out on the reveal for the next big thing? (I took the bait, by the way.)

Other properties unique to Apple may be at work. There is a well-chronicled reality distortion field around Mr. Jobs, and his bout with illness and industrious recovery have only reinforced his otherworldly properties. That aura, combined with the company’s history of producing technology that jailbreaks digital culture and transforms entire industries, means it’s best to remain vigilant, even when the company is saying nothing.

Another media dynamic is in play: shared interests. Because the tablet is said to create a new digital reading experience, offering publishing companies a kind of do-over, many media types see the tablet as a life preserver in the midst of the tall waves. Already, the prospective challenge has pushed Amazon to open up its Kindle reader to applications and sweetened royalty arrangements for certain kinds of content.

There was a suggestion at the beginning of the month that Apple actually quietly engages with the news media in a way that does not leave fingerprints. Writing for The Mac Observer, John Martellaro, a former senior marketing manager at Apple, said it had happened before: “The way it works is that a senior exec will come in and say: ‘We need to release this specific information. John, do you have a trusted friend at a major outlet? If so, call him/her and have a conversation. Idly mention this information and suggest that if it were published, that would be nice. No e-mails!’”

That would be news to people who have covered Apple for decades.

“What Steve wants to do more than anything is surprise the world,” said John Markoff, the longtime technology reporter at The New York Times. “It is not in his interest to have a steady drip of product information before he takes the stage.”

Paul Saffo, a veteran technologist in Silicon Valley who has known Mr. Jobs for years, said he hadn’t seen any traces of Apple in the current frenzy.

“We used to say that Apple was a ship that leaked from the top, but it’s been a lot more like North Korea for the past few years,” Mr. Saffo said. “When you look at the night sky, would you notice a single bright star or a huge black hole? Steve creates a black hole and then fills it in with stars.”

So it’s simple really. If you make a product that turns the culture upside down, drives stock price and reconfigures other industries, you step to the stage amid a herald of trumpets and perform magic.

Just make sure the dang thing works.

E-mail: carr@nytimes.com http://twitter.com/carr2n

The Media Equation: Conjuring Up the Latest Buzz, Without a Word